Weekly Recap 10-25-2013 – All trend lines support bulls

Weekly Recap: SPY continued its climb this week and although it was a weaker advance than last week SPY still made new all time highs and crossed the upper wedge trendline. All trend lines support the bullish case, and a continuation of the move up is the most likely scenario.

We are on the brink of a decision point (another one sheeeshhh), either SPY turns around in the next several days for at least a minor retrace/consolidation giving the bears some hope that this was just an overshot over the wedge line and this rally is almost over, otherwise another couple of green days and I am pretty sure we can say the bulls will be running the game for the next couple of months and any retrace we shall see (probably to check the broken wedge line) should be bought.

2013-10-25- Weekly

In the short term ,the bulls broke the 60 min trend line on the last hour Friday, so now all trend lines support the bullish scenario again. The possible inverse Head and Shoulders pattern I twitted about during trade hours Friday may very well manifest fully with a target around 177.5. The last hope the bulls have is the negative divergence on the 120 min, so if the 60 min will create one too we may see a correction, otherwise the direction is up

Battle Plan for the 10-28-2013

120 min short signal under 174.74

2013-10-25 -End of day

* Stop loss lines should be triggered if there is an interval close above them (i.e. 60 min or 120 min ), they are published in the daily blog and updated during trading hours on twitter.

* Take profit lines should be triggered immediately when crossed, they are usually issued during the trading day on twitter.

* Entry signals should be triggered when crossed, but take into account that until there is a confirmation (i.e. close of the interval across the entry signal) , the signal can become a reversal signal.

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Daily Recap 10-24-2013 – Possible Triangle Forming

Daily Recap: In my daily battle plan progress this morning I wrote that I see tow possible scenarios, the first a h&s and the second a triangle in the forming. The head and shoulder formation is most likely out since SPY climbed too high today, so I am left with the triangle. If correct most likely we have seen the end of the second leg today and should see the next leg down decline tomorrow to the 174.25-174.5 range.

Battle Plan for the 10/25/2013

I don’t want to get caught in the zigzag and frankly do not think the reversal pattern at the end of day was good enough so we remain with the 120 min short signal. Of course we should always be open to intraday reversal signals so keep an eye on the twitter updates.

120 min short signal under 173.9

2013-10-24-End of day

* Stop loss lines should be triggered if there is an interval close above them (i.e. 60 min or 120 min ), they are published in the daily blog and updated during trading hours on twitter.

* Take profit lines should be triggered immediately when crossed, they are usually issued during the trading day on twitter.

* Entry signals should be triggered when crossed, but take into account that until there is a confirmation (i.e. close of the interval across the entry signal) , the signal can become a reversal signal.

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Daily Recap 10-22-2013 – Facing a Temporary Peak

Daily Recap: SPY opened with a gap up just as I stipulated yesterday, and continued to make an impressive new all time high before turning around in a sharp correction almost closing the morning gap. The rest of the day was just a slow grind upwards towards the morning high. Pattern wise I am not sure what is going on, but it looks like we are either facing some kind of a temporary peak or are wedging towards it. I can see divergence on the 60 and 120 min intervals and I think that even if we make a new high tomorrow we are about to start some kind of correction.

The long reversal position that was opened this morning did relatively well despite the gap up and the sharp correction and is currently in the green, so unless a gap down in the morning I expect it to close profitably.

Battle Plan for the 10/23/2013

60 Stop under 175.34

60 min short signal under 174.27

120 min short signal under 173.9

2013-10-22-End of day

* Stop loss lines should be triggered if there is an interval close above them (i.e. 60 min or 120 min ), they are published in the daily blog and updated during trading hours on twitter.

* Take profit lines should be triggered immediately when crossed, they are usually issued during the trading day on twitter.

* Entry signals should be triggered when crossed, but take into account that until there is a confirmation (i.e. close of the interval across the entry signal) , the signal can become a reversal signal.

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