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Due to illness there would be no updates this weekend
Got confirmation for a daily trend change today from my system and the history shows that it usually means another 20 points correction at the minimum. As I predicted yesterday the market hit the 150 resistance and held so far retracing a bit in the last hour, if you took some profit as I suggested on twitter during trade hours, you went to sleep profitable. However the key word in the last sentence in my opinion is so far. There are three possible scenarios I see:
1. Least likely – 150 resistance holds and we keep retracing to new highs.
2. Possible – overnight the panic spreads in the markets and we wake up tomorrow to a gap down that keeps on going down.
3. Probable – we keep on correcting to 1510-1515 on the SPX only to come crashing down later. Possible targets are 1480 or 1465.
Battle Plan 2/22/2013
So to summarize it the battle plan for tomorrow is:
Yesterday I said that if you are not short today you will probably get an opportunity soon, and I think tomorrow will be the day. I plan on following my scenario 3 (unless we gap down tomorrow) going short if we break 150.30 (with more retrace first), but will update the short opp in real time on twitter.
In the meantime just in case I am wrong my stop is at 152.03 on spy
I would love to hear what you think about where the market is headed, you can comment either on facebook or on this post.
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