Triangulation

It probably will not come as a surprise to you if I state that it looks like the S&P is in a triangle pattern, with a bullish bias to continue climbing up to new highs. As you can see in the chart below I believe we have another leg down to around 164.5 on SPY before finishing the triangle and continuing the movement up. I currently think that a cross above 166.83 will indicate the end of the triangle but the numbers will change of course during trade hours and I will update on twitter. Take into account that there is still a good chance that we are just seeing a preparation for a bigger correction, if 163.9 is broken decisively we may see a much bigger correction.

If you are following my trades, yesterday I opened and closed a short position for the reversal pattern breaking even, however in retrospect it seems I misinterpreted the system signal and should have opened the short position at 166.93 and not at 165.26, so I am going to update my signal rules for future reference.

2013-05-30-TOS_CHARTS

Battle Plan for the 5/31/2013

Go long if indeed it triangulates and goes above 166.83

120 min interval stop over 167.34 on SPY

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Hold and Reverse

My likely scenario from yesterday materialized today when the S&P failed to close the 120 min interval over the stop point, only to reverse and start descending. It remains to be seen if tomorrow we are going to have a follow through of the decline going even lower, or have another reversal and climb to close over the stop point.

More Profit 1The S&P closed over the 60 min interval stop point and therefore this 60 min interval short trade is officially closed with a profit of 1.07 points on SPY.

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Battle Plan for the 5/29/2013

There is a system reversal short signal on the 60 min under 165.26 on SPY. This is not a regular system signal but one that occurs from the reversal on the 120 min interval, so it’s up to you to decide if you want to trade it.

120 min interval stop over 167.34 on SPY

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Recuperating from memorial day

memorial day

I am still recuperating from memorial day so I’ll be brief, I do not see any new signal yet so I am unsure if this retrace is just a preparation for a downward plunge or a climb to new highs. But as long as the short stop points are not reached I am leaning towards and bearish option. A very likely scenario is a visit and test of the stop points followed by a reversal and strong sell.

Battle Plan for the 5/28/2013

60 min interval stop over 166.44 on SPY

120 min interval short under 167.34 on SPY

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